The role of teleconnection patterns in the variability and trends of growing season indices across Europe

Teleconnection patterns affect the weather and climate on both interannual decadal timescales which in turn affects various socio-economic sectors such as agriculture. We use three indices based E-OBS data from INDECIS dataset (growing season onset [ogs10], growing rainfall [gsr] temperature [ta_o]) to assess variability trends over 1950–2017 associated with four teleconnection (North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], East pattern [EA], Scandinavian [SCA] Atlantic/West Russia [EAWR]) using linear regression extract signal of each their contribution variability. Trends towards an earlier are found across most Europe low-lying regions. The NAO dominates northwest where index 1 is ogs10 about 10 days EA continent a trend positive phase driving 1.1–1.7 days·decade?1 five regions (Great Britain Ireland, France, Italy, Poland North Germany, Hungary, Balkans). SCA gsr signals have north/south splits orientation: linked increased northern reduced southern Europe, vice versa for SCA. Correlations between contributions strongest Mediterranean south Scandinavia maxima 0.41 0.46, respectively. Decreasing ta_o Romania explained by poor coverage causing problems EOBS gridding algorithm when new stations incorporated 1961. net effect that Romanian 1.5°C cooler than expected compared surrounding countries. Improved spatial temporal will benefit prevent erroneous trends.